PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - R. David Ranson TI - Some Empirical Foundations for Tactical Asset Allocation AID - 10.3905/jwm.2016.19.3.062 DP - 2016 Oct 31 TA - The Journal of Wealth Management PG - 62--74 VI - 19 IP - 3 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/19/3/62.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/19/3/62.full AB - Certain price “signals” produced by financial markets appear to contain substantial information about future asset returns and macroeconomic behavior. Recognizing and exploring this opportunity, the article proposes and illustrates a simple model for anticipating the absolute and relative performance of the major asset classes. It reviews evidence for the broad predictive power of two particular market signals: credit spreads and the price of gold. The reader should bear in mind that the model is one that is derived from the evidence, rather than a model that the evidence is used to test.TOPICS: Portfolio construction, statistical methods, performance measurement