Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Past Issues
  • Videos
  • Submit an article
  • More
    • About JWM
    • Editorial Board
    • Published Ahead of Print (PAP)
  • IPR Logo
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Publish
  • Advertise
  • Videos
  • More
    • Awards
    • Article Licensing
    • Academic Use
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • YouTube

User menu

  • Sample our Content
  • Subscribe Now
  • Log in

Search

  • Advanced search
The Journal of Wealth Management
  • IPR Logo
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Publish
  • Advertise
  • Videos
  • More
    • Awards
    • Article Licensing
    • Academic Use
  • Sample our Content
  • Subscribe Now
  • Log in
The Journal of Wealth Management

The Journal of Wealth Management

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Current Issue
  • Past Issues
  • Videos
  • Submit an article
  • More
    • About JWM
    • Editorial Board
    • Published Ahead of Print (PAP)
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • YouTube

When to Own Stocks and When to Own Gold

Timothy F. Peterson
The Journal of Wealth Management Winter 2018, 21 (3) 26-36; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jwm.2018.21.3.026
Timothy F. Peterson
is the founder and investment manager for Cane Island Alternative Advisors, LLC in Katy, TX. timothy@cane-island.com
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Login below to view the full article

Abstract

This article shows that dynamic investment portfolio asset allocation based on secular market cycles outperforms a buy-and-hold portfolio of equities and outperforms a buy-and-hold portfolio of gold over long periods. An objective definition of secular market enables identification of an appropriate ex-ante risk-on or risk-off posture for a portfolio. The author constructs an objective measure, which is termed a “secular market indicator (SMI),” using a modified Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio with gold as a reference point. This SMI has slightly greater predictive power than Shiller's CAPE Ratio in that it provides a consistent threshold signal for secular macroeconomic reversals. Finally, the author uses the SMI to create a simple decision rule to shift asset allocation between equity and gold depending on the secular market cycle. The resulting portfolio outperforms an all-equity portfolio and an all-gold portfolio over holding periods of 10+ years about 70% of the time and produces superior risk-adjusted performance about 80% of the time.

  • © 2018 Pageant Media Ltd
View Full Text

Don’t have access?

IPR Journals is the leading provider of applicable theoretical research for all those in the investment management community. Benefit from access to our content including:

  • Unrestricted access to all 11 Journals ​
  • Enhanced Search and Browse Functionality
  • Topic Searches and handpicked curated Collections 
  • A full archive of content going back to 1974

SAMPLE OUR CONTENT >>

INQUIRE ABOUT A SUBSCRIPTION >>

Log in using your username and password

Forgot your user name or password?
PreviousNext
Back to top

Explore all content across our journals

  • Topics
  • Journals
  • Authors
  • Highlights
  • Collections

In this issue

The Journal of Wealth Management: 21 (3)
The Journal of Wealth Management
Vol. 21, Issue 3
Winter 2018
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author
Print
Download PDF
Article Alerts
Sign In to Email Alerts with your Email Address
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on The Journal of Wealth Management.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
When to Own Stocks and When to Own Gold
(Your Name) has sent you a message from The Journal of Wealth Management
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the The Journal of Wealth Management web site.
Citation Tools
When to Own Stocks and When to Own Gold
Timothy F. Peterson
The Journal of Wealth Management Oct 2018, 21 (3) 26-36; DOI: 10.3905/jwm.2018.21.3.026

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Save To My Folders
Share
When to Own Stocks and When to Own Gold
Timothy F. Peterson
The Journal of Wealth Management Oct 2018, 21 (3) 26-36; DOI: 10.3905/jwm.2018.21.3.026
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Tweet Widget Facebook Like LinkedIn logo

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • SECULAR MARKETS
    • SHILLER CAPE RATIO AS A SECULAR MARKET INDICATOR
    • A BETTER SECULAR MARKET INDICATOR
    • METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND RESULTS
    • DISCUSSION AND APPLICATION
    • CONCLUSION
    • ENDNOTES
    • REFERENCES
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF

Cited By...

  • No citing articles found.
  • Google Scholar

Similar Articles

LONDON
One London Wall, London, EC2Y 5EA
United Kingdom
+44 207 139 1600
 
NEW YORK
41 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010
USA
+1 646 931 9045
iprjournals@pageantmedia.com
 

Stay Connected

  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • YouTube

MORE FROM IPR

  • Home
  • Awards
  • Investment Guides
  • Videos
  • About IPR Journals

INFORMATION FOR

  • Academics
  • Agents
  • Authors
  • Content Usage Terms

GET INVOLVED

  • Advertise
  • Publish
  • Article Licensing
  • Subscribe Now
  • Log In
  • Update your profile
  • Give us your feedback

© 2018 Pageant Media Ltd | All Rights Reserved | ISSN: 1534-7524 | E-ISSN: 2374-1368

  • Site Map
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Cookies
  • Privacy Policy